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Predictably Irrational, Revised and Expanded Edition: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions Kindle Edition
Behavioral economist and New York Times bestselling author Dan Ariely offers a much-needed take on the irrational decisions that led to our current economic crisis.
- LanguageEnglish
- PublisherHarperCollins e-books
- Publication dateJune 6, 2009
- File size3.3 MB
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From the Publisher




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IRRATIONALLY YOURS
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HONEST TRUTH ABOUT DISHONESTY
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DOLLARS AND SENSE
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UPSIDE OF IRRATIONALITY
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Editorial Reviews
From Publishers Weekly
Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Review
From the Back Cover
How do we think about money?
What caused bankers to lose sight of the economy?
What caused individuals to take on mortgages that were not within their means?
What irrational forces guided our decisions?
And how can we recover from an economic crisis?
In this revised and expanded edition of the New York Times and Wall Street Journal bestseller Predictably Irrational, Duke University's behavioral economist Dan Ariely explores the hidden forces that shape our decisions, including some of the causes responsible for the current economic crisis. Bringing a much-needed dose of sophisticated psychological study to the realm of public policy, Ariely offers his own insights into the irrationalities of everyday life, the decisions that led us to the financial meltdown of 2008, and the general ways we get ourselves into trouble.
Blending common experiences and clever experiments with groundbreaking analysis, Ariely demonstrates how expectations, emotions, social norms, and other invisible, seemingly illogical forces skew our reasoning abilities. As he explains, our reliance on standard economic theory to design personal, national, and global policies may, in fact, be dangerous. The mistakes that we make as individuals and institutions are not random, and they can aggregate in the market—with devastating results. In light of our current economic crisis, the consequences of these systematic and predictable mistakes have never been clearer.
Packed with new studies and thought-provoking responses to readers' questions and comments, this revised and expanded edition of Predictably Irrational will change the way we interact with the world—from the small decisions we make in our own lives to the individual and collective choices that shape our economy.
About the Author
Dan Ariely is the James B. Duke Professor of Psychology and Behavioral Economics at Duke University. He is a founding member of the Center for Advanced Hindsight; a cocreator of the film documentary (Dis)Honesty: The Truth About Lies; and a three-time New York Times bestselling author. His books include Predictably Irrational, The Upside of Irrationality, The (Honest) Truth About Dishonesty, Irrationally Yours, Payoff, Dollars and Sense, and Amazing Decisions. His TED Talks have been viewed more than 27 million times. His work has been featured in the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, the Washington Post, the Boston Globe, and elsewhere. He lives in North Carolina with his family.
Excerpt. © Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved.
Predictably Irrational, Revised and Expanded Edition
By Dan ArielyHarperCollins Publishers
Copyright © 2010 Dan ArielyAll rights reserved.
ISBN: 978-0-06-135324-6
C H A P T E R 1
The Truth about Relativity
Why Everything Is Relative—Even
When It Shouldn't Be
One day while browsing the World Wide Web (obviously
for work—not just wasting time), I stumbled on the fol-
lowing ad, on the Web site of a magazine, the Economist.
predictably irrational
2
I read these offers one at a time. The fi rst offer—the Inter-
net subscription for $59—seemed reasonable. The second
option—the $125 print subscription—seemed a bit expen-
sive, but still reasonable.
But then I read the third option: a print and Internet sub-
scription for $125. I read it twice before my eye ran back to the
previous options. Who would want to buy the print option
alone, I wondered, when both the Internet and the print sub-
scriptions were offered for the same price? Now, the print- only
option may have been a typographical error, but I suspect that
the clever people at the Economist's London offi ces (and they
are clever—and quite mischievous in a British sort of way) were
actually manipulating me. I am pretty certain that they wanted
me to skip the Internet- only option (which they assumed would
be my choice, since I was reading the advertisement on the Web)
and jump to the more expensive option: Internet and print.
But how could they manipulate me? I suspect it's because
the Economist's marketing wizards (and I could just picture
them in their school ties and blazers) knew something impor-
tant about human behavior: humans rarely choose things in
absolute terms. We don't have an internal value meter that
tells us how much things are worth. Rather, we focus on the
relative advantage of one thing over another, and estimate
value accordingly. (For instance, we don't know how much a
six- cylinder car is worth, but we can assume it's more expen-
sive than the four- cylinder model.)
In the case of the Economist, I may not have known whether
the Internet- only subscription at $59 was a better deal than the
print- only option at $125. But I certainly knew that the print-
and- Internet option for $125 was better than the print- only
option at $125. In fact, you could reasonably deduce that in
the combination package, the Internet subscription is free! “It's
the truth about relativity
3
a bloody steal—go for it, governor!” I could almost hear them
shout from the riverbanks of the Thames. And I have to admit,
if I had been inclined to subscribe I probably would have taken
the package deal myself. (Later, when I tested the offer on a
large number of participants, the vast majority preferred the
Internet- and- print deal.)
So what was going on here? Let me start with a funda-
mental observation: most people don't know what they want
unless they see it in context. We don't know what kind of
racing bike we want—until we see a champ in the Tour de
France ratcheting the gears on a par tic u lar model. We don't
know what kind of speaker system we like—until we hear a
set of speakers that sounds better than the previous one. We
don't even know what we want to do with our lives—until
we fi nd a relative or a friend who is doing just what we think
we should be doing. Everything is relative, and that's the
point. Like an airplane pi lot landing in the dark, we want
runway lights on either side of us, guiding us to the place
where we can touch down our wheels.
In the case of the Economist, the decision between the Internet-
only and print- only options would take a bit of thinking. Think-
ing is diffi cult and sometimes unpleasant. So the Economist's
marketers offered us a no- brainer: relative to the print-only op-
tion, the print- and- Internet option looks clearly superior.
The geniuses at the Economist aren't the only ones who un-
derstand the importance of relativity. Take Sam, the tele vi sion
salesman. He plays the same general type of trick on us when
he decides which tele vi sions to put together on display:
36-inch Panasonic for $690
42- inch Toshiba for $850
50-inch Philips for $1,480
predictably irrational
4
Which one would you choose? In this case, Sam knows
that customers fi nd it diffi cult to compute the value of differ-
ent options. (Who really knows if the Panasonic at $690 is a
better deal than the Philips at $1,480?) But Sam also knows
that given three choices, most people will take the middle
choice (as in landing your plane between the runway lights).
So guess which tele vi sion Sam prices as the middle option?
That's right—the one he wants to sell!
Of course, Sam is not alone in his cleverness. The New
York Times ran a story recently about Gregg Rapp, a restau-
rant con sul tant, who gets paid to work out the pricing for
menus. He knows, for instance, how lamb sold this year as
opposed to last year; whether lamb did better paired with
squash or with risotto; and whether orders decreased when
the price of the main course was hiked from $39 to $41.
One thing Rapp has learned is that high- priced entrées on
the menu boost revenue for the restaurant—even if no one
buys them. Why? Because even though people generally won't
buy the most expensive dish on the menu, they will order the
second most expensive dish. Thus, by creating an expensive
dish, a restaurateur can lure customers into ordering the sec-
ond most expensive choice (which can be cleverly engineered
to deliver a higher profi t margin).1
So let's run through the Economist's sleight of hand in
slow motion.
As you recall, the choices were:
1.
(Continues...)Excerpted from Predictably Irrational, Revised and Expanded Edition by Dan Ariely. Copyright © 2010 Dan Ariely. Excerpted by permission of HarperCollins Publishers.
All rights reserved. No part of this excerpt may be reproduced or reprinted without permission in writing from the publisher.
Excerpts are provided by Dial-A-Book Inc. solely for the personal use of visitors to this web site.
Product details
- ASIN : B002C949KE
- Publisher : HarperCollins e-books
- Accessibility : Learn more
- Publication date : June 6, 2009
- Edition : Revised and Expanded ed.
- Language : English
- File size : 3.3 MB
- Enhanced typesetting : Enabled
- X-Ray : Enabled
- Word Wise : Enabled
- Print length : 379 pages
- ISBN-10 : 9780061958724
- ISBN-13 : 978-0061958724
- Page Flip : Enabled
- Best Sellers Rank: #53,600 in Kindle Store (See Top 100 in Kindle Store)
- #11 in Consumer Behavior (Kindle Store)
- #29 in Statistics (Books)
- #33 in Decision-Making & Problem Solving
- Customer Reviews:
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About the author

Officially, I am the James B. Duke Professor of Psychology & Behavioral Economics at Duke University.
I founded the Center for Advanced Hindsight, wrote a few books, took part in a few media project and startups.
I co-created of the film documentary (Dis)Honesty: The Truth About Lies, and I wrote three-time New York Times bestsellers: Predictably Irrational, The Upside of irrationality, and The Honest Truth About Dishonesty. I also wrote a few books that did not make it to the New York Times bestsellers list: Irrationally Yours, Payoff, Amazing Decisions and Dollars and Sense.
My new book, MISBELIEF: WHAT MAKES RATIONAL PEOPLE BELIEVE IRRATIONAL THINGS began with my own experience being the target of conspiracy theories, but quickly became about a phenomenon that affects all of us. I will use the term misbelief to describe the phenomenon we’re exploring. Misbelief is a distorted lens through which people begin to view the world, reason about the world, and then describe the world to others.
I derive a lot of satisfaction from seeing my work take shape in the real life and I take part in a few companies / startups. Among them are: Lemonade, Shapa, Irrational Capital, BEWorks, Epilog, Timeful, and Irrational Labs.
I am also part of a team that is working on an NBC TV series that is loosely based on my life and will premiere on NBC in the fall of 2023. The show is called “The Irrational” and officially it is based on my first book, Predictably Irrational.
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Learn more how customers reviews work on AmazonCustomers say
Customers find the book highly entertaining and well-written, with interesting research examples that provide great insights into human behavior. They appreciate its value for money, with one customer describing it as a modern Rosetta Stone of pricing and merchandising, and find it excellent for marketing gurus. The book's approach to economics receives mixed reactions, with some praising its unique perspectives while others criticize the economic theory as completely wrong.
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Customers find the book highly entertaining and easy to read, with one customer noting it's particularly suitable for business professionals.
"Great book. Learned a lot and was truly fascinated by the studies shared throughout...." Read more
"This is a great book and wonderful addition to our library." Read more
"...I now understand that the human mind is extremely irrational. Great read." Read more
"...The writing is fun, clear, and fit for a mass audience. It is an easy read and not too mentally taxing...." Read more
Customers find the book insightful, appreciating its research examples and thought-provoking content about human behavior.
"...If we are lucky this might be helpful, but mostly it is interesting and informative." Read more
"Insightful, charming, empowering. Great for anyone interested in human behavior, and our way of building, as Einstein said, the "self-made prison"." Read more
"...Interesting, but somewhat impractical and I think you'll wind up skimming significant sections of the book." Read more
"This is a very interesting and insightful layman’s approach to a complex and yet very familiar series of topics - why do we behave as we do?..." Read more
Customers find the book humorous and entertaining, with witty and fun insights into human nature, though one customer notes it is written in a really funny informational way.
"...Basically, the book is a good read. It is entertaining, insightful and educative. A 5/5 from me." Read more
"...It’s accessible and fun. Glad I read it and that I now have an even better understanding of just how nuts we all are." Read more
"Entertaining, interesting and relevant. A good read. I found myself sharing bits of the book with friends and colleagues." Read more
"I really enjoyed this book. It is well written, funny, and easy to understand...." Read more
Customers find the book worth its price, particularly appreciating its insights into behavior economics, with one customer describing it as a modern rosetta stone of pricing and merchandising.
"...Chapter 1 is worth the price of the book itself!..." Read more
"...Wanted to know more about his work. This book was well worth the money and challenges the reader to look at themselves and others as we move through..." Read more
"...mind and the market tricks, it is a good complementary book and worths the price." Read more
"...Price is so powerful that it can drive the Placebo Effect - the more the price, the more the utility you derive from the product...." Read more
Customers find the book valuable for marketing, with several noting it's excellent for marketing gurus, and one mentioning it provides insights into consumer behavior.
"...This book is excellent for marketing gurus or anyone else who ever has to "sell" a product or an idea...." Read more
"...A lot of nice research examples and it gives you a extra understanding in the buying behaviour of people...." Read more
"This book has become a marketing classic,and rightfully so...." Read more
"...It also has enough of a more "consumer-oriented," casual reader writing to keep you engaged." Read more
Customers have mixed feelings about the book's approach to irrationality, with some finding the personal stories and experiments interesting, while others note that the logic and experiments are often incomplete.
"...One last comment...the chapters on dishonesty are fascinating!" Read more
"Predictably Irrational..." Read more
"...and easy book to read, and it's full of experiments and personal anecdotes...." Read more
"...and it's not quite a behavioral psychology book (read Sway) so it falls somewhere in the middle - and..." Read more
Customers have mixed opinions about the economic content of the book, with some appreciating its unique perspectives on behavioral economics, while others criticize the economic theory as being completely wrong.
"...But, I find that behavioral economics explains and enhances classical economics rather than displaces it...." Read more
"...It's not quite an economics book (for a much better analysis of the many failings of neoclassical economics, read Debunking Economics by Keen) and it..." Read more
"...Rational decision-making is an important axiom of basic economic theory...." Read more
"...I found particularly interesting the chapters about social vs economic customs and about how we respond to the word 'free'...." Read more
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Top reviews from the United States
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- Reviewed in the United States on July 6, 2025I have long enjoyed Ariely's articles in my newspaper. This book was entertaining and educational.
- Reviewed in the United States on December 31, 2012This was a fun book to read. It has been a while since I took any economics courses, and I forgot how much of economic theory is based on the assumption that humans are rational beings, always acting in their best interests. Dan Ariely does a marvelous job of shooting holes through that assumption.
=== The Good Stuff ===
* The book is really an overview of behavioral economics- the study of how supposedly rational people make decisions. Ariely recounts numerous experiments in which people are given a challenge and react in ways which would seem to be exactly opposite of their self-interest. As an example, if you allow people the chance to buy $1 chocolate bars for 10 cents, they will purchase quite a few. But if you offer then 90 cent chocolates for free, they will only take one or two. If experiments like this interest you, you will enjoy the book.
* In each case, Ariely describes a simple experiment, and provides a theory as to what he thinks happened. I have no idea how many of his theories are considered valid, or would stand up to peer review. But for a quick read to just amuse yourself with human nature, the explanations suffice.
* Ariely picks a nice assortment of topics-everything from placebos to "irrational" pricing and honestly and ethics. The experiments are clever and "fun", although I doubt they would stand up to serious scientific scrutiny. Still, they were fun to read, and I will probably try some of them on my friends.
=== The Not So Good Stuff ===
* While Ariely writes well, he is not the most engaging author you will read. The text comes across a little dry, and by the final chapters, I was ready for the book to end.
* While the experiments, or at least their explanations were no doubt simplified for the book, in some cases they open more questions than they answer. Ariely offers one explanation and theory for the observed results, but makes no attempts to analyze deeper, or provide alternative explanations.
* Without seeing more information, it is hard to tell if the experiments and their conclusions are statistically valid. In some cases it seems that they might not be, although given Ariely's background, it would seem he would know enough to assure the experiments validity.
* Finally, there is no real theme or common thread through the work. Rather it is more like a series of short lab reports. The result is that the book can become tedious, and that it is tough to remember some of the results, as all the stories blur together.
===Summary===
While there were some problems, I did enjoy the book, and found the material fascinating. Some of the experiments product results that were quite unexpected, and with a little thinking you can use some of this information into whatever your business or trade you operate in.
I'd recommend the book, with the caveat that the book has some flaws. Still, the positives outweigh the negatives.
- Reviewed in the United States on February 27, 2010"Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions" by Ariely Ariely (PI), was an interesting read, and deserves to be looked at by economist, psychologist, marketer, or just people looking to improve their selves alike. It follows the trend, set by Freakonomics, by Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner, in discussion of esoteric economic concepts, but without the academese that tends to keep casual readers away. I found myself personally engrossed while reading this novel due to the parallels of irrational behavior I discovered I also exhibited and will be actively correcting. The following three I believe have sentimental value to me and I feel are genuinely worth discussing.
Zero cost irrationality as described by PI is the concept that reviews the large bias humans show towards "free." I put free in quotations as I am using the term loosely in this context as often the decision chosen is not without cost, and in relative terms, it is often not the option that held the most value per unit of the exchanging intermediary item. In fact, just a few hours before writing this brief review, I purchased three Publix cloth shopping bags that I had no intention of purchasing beforehand, but because they were buy three get one free. I can say in earnest, without that free offer, I would have completely shrugged off the Publix bag, to purchase at another time. A potential solution to this problem, derived from a specific example he mentions within the chapter, is to mentally give the "free" item a price, even one as low as one penny. This, surprisingly, nullifies the zero cost irrationality for most individuals, allowing for proper cost-benefit analysis of the additional item or offer.
Procrastination, or the giving up of long-term goals for immediate gratification, this desire for immediate satisfaction permeates particularly strongly throughout American culture. The effect of this national procrastination can be seen by abhorrently low national saving rate, or more implicitly or healthcare system that is more reactive than proactive. Though I personally am not a pure procrastinator, in fact many would consider me an extrovert, I believe that there quite a bit I still put off that I do so exactly because I fail to properly evaluate the opportunity cost of the long term benefit of said action. For example, I did a quick back of an envelope calculation of me putting of my savings to next year, rather than not starting when I begun work two years ago. This three wait has cost me over half a million dollars (Assumptions: Roth IRA, with locked six percent APR, maturing in fifty years). I have begun taking Ariely's advice, and setting hard deadlines for many things, such as this particular book review which I gave myself exactly the day after completing the book to complete, no exceptions and no excuses.
The final personal irrationality I've found plaguing my decision making has been that of `keeping doors open,' or not being able to stand the idea of closing our alternative options. My irrational in my context, has to do with maybe not a plethora of options, as emphasized within the book, but rather when I am down to two options that have to deal with something within the social sphere. Case in point, I would fret over the decision of whether I should continue to chase after a girl or letting her go, or going to a party where I would probably feel uncomfortable or not, though these examples may seem simple to an someone else, I struggled with these decisions constantly. Often than not, I found myself unable to take the choice that errs on the side of negative (deciding to stay home, or leave the girl alone) as I felt doing so eliminates a multitude of options without producing any new ones of benefit. I am curious to whether how much confidence has to do with the exact experiment presented within the book. I speculate if participants were required to self select as confident, or perhaps anchored to think of confidence, if such decisions become easier. I wonder this, since many my such decision-making gridlocks underlie a lack of self confidence, perhaps those with more of it at the time of the test may change results. In sum, Ariely's solution, as I interpret it, the cure for procrastination is really premised by self-confidence, where one sets long term goals and bravely commits to them.
The book discussed around 14 irrationalities in total across 13 chapters, each holding a slight new scope of human cognizance to gain. The three above mentioned irrationalities after a deep introspective look, I felt held the most personal utility. I genuinely I have a new lens to the world. I genuinely believe that holds the potential to enrich the perspective of most readers as well, no matter their relative amount of academic background on the subject.
Top reviews from other countries
- InmaroReviewed in Germany on April 17, 2024
5.0 out of 5 stars Good content
This book deals with the topic that people can behave irrational, although they might be convinced the exact opposite is the case. And through the author's attitude of explaining in what way irrationality actually becomes pretty predictable, the reader is enabled very easily to understand what's meant here.
So it offers explanations of how we're actually manipulated into buying things by putting objects into relativity to nearly equivalent objects, how ownership defines what we think something is worth and in what way sexual arousal dulls our decision-making ability.
I like the writing style in which this topic is treated: very clear and accentuated descriptions, that are very lively, witty and even sometimes with a touch of irony. The content is based on economics and how our brains are functioning in this regard. I recommend that book very much.
- Alok KejriwalReviewed in India on August 11, 2019
5.0 out of 5 stars Just get this book. That's it.
Predictably Irrational - Book review.
GET THIS BOOK. That's it.
A BRILLIANT read. Irrespective of what you do, you must read this textbook of human behaviour & how amazingly complex our minds are decisions are.
A sample of what's inside:
Consider an experiment on 100 students based on an old subscription model of The Economist magazine, offering:
Option 1 - a web subscription for $59
Option 2 - a print subscription for $125
Option 3 - a web & print subscription for $125
16 students chose Option 1
0 students chose Option 2 (obvious!!)
84 students chose Option 3.
Revenue earned = $11,444.
The author then removed Option 2 (Print sub for $125) Results:
68 students chose Option 1
32 students went for Option 3Revenue earned = $8,012
What could have possibly changed their minds? It was the mere presence of THE DECOY (2nd option) that made them buy MORE expensive options in the 1st experiment & less in the 2nd experiment.
The book is replete with such experiments. Also, real-life examples of human behaviour when it comes to product pricing (including 'anchoring'), buying houses, cheating, Starbucks Upsells, what Ford learned from Toyota about Car servicing and too many brilliant quotes.
Alok KejriwalJust get this book. That's it.
Reviewed in India on August 11, 2019
GET THIS BOOK. That's it.
A BRILLIANT read. Irrespective of what you do, you must read this textbook of human behaviour & how amazingly complex our minds are decisions are.
A sample of what's inside:
Consider an experiment on 100 students based on an old subscription model of The Economist magazine, offering:
Option 1 - a web subscription for $59
Option 2 - a print subscription for $125
Option 3 - a web & print subscription for $125
16 students chose Option 1
0 students chose Option 2 (obvious!!)
84 students chose Option 3.
Revenue earned = $11,444.
The author then removed Option 2 (Print sub for $125) Results:
68 students chose Option 1
32 students went for Option 3Revenue earned = $8,012
What could have possibly changed their minds? It was the mere presence of THE DECOY (2nd option) that made them buy MORE expensive options in the 1st experiment & less in the 2nd experiment.
The book is replete with such experiments. Also, real-life examples of human behaviour when it comes to product pricing (including 'anchoring'), buying houses, cheating, Starbucks Upsells, what Ford learned from Toyota about Car servicing and too many brilliant quotes.
Images in this review
2 people found this helpfulReport -
Cliente KindleReviewed in Brazil on July 17, 2020
5.0 out of 5 stars Sensacional
Livro que abre a mente, que faz pensar e nos mostra a realidade com outros olhos. A escrita é genial, divertida e altamente instigante! Vou ler outros do autor.
- JoshuaReviewed in Singapore on September 17, 2021
5.0 out of 5 stars Great Book, received on time and in great condition
JoshuaGreat Book, received on time and in great condition
Reviewed in Singapore on September 17, 2021
Images in this review
- AndrikReviewed in Turkey on June 24, 2024
5.0 out of 5 stars great product
it arrived a little late, guess its because of the holiday. despite that everything is okay.